The United States is expected to top the table and win the most medals overall at Tokyo 2020 Olympics, according to the forecast made by data company Gracenote.
Gracenote in its latest Olympic Games Virtual Medal Table (VMT) sees the United States winning 117 medals in total, with 47 in gold, 36 silver and 34 bronze, to finish ahead of China atop the table.
Considering results data from key competitions since the 2016 Summer Games, Gracenote predicts gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries and athletes at the Games.
At the 2016 Rio Games, USA had won a total 121 medals (46-37-38). China, who only managed 26 gold medals in Rio are predicted to increase the number to 43 and improve on their third place finish at the last Games.
Hosts Japan are predicted to more than double their haul to 30 gold medals this time around to finish third with their boost coming from the additional new Olympic events. Japan are expected to win as many as 6 gold medals from sports making their debut in Tkyo.
Basketball 3×3, karate, skateboarding, sport climbing and surfing are all new sports on the Olympic programme in 2020. Baseball/softball returns to the Summer Games after being absent at either the 2012 or 2016 Olympic Games.
There are also new events in the existing Olympic sports of archery, athletics, BMX, boxing, canoe slalom, canoe sprint, cycling – track, fencing, judo, rowing, shooting, swimming, table tennis and triathlon.
Interestingly enough, Russia, who are facing Olympic shutout due to the ongoing anti-doping scandal are expected to improve on their 19 gold haul from Rio to 25 this time around. With the Court of Arbitration for Sports due to make a decision on Russia’s four-year-ban from all major sporting events, the question on how many of the predicted winners would make it to Tokyo as neutral athletes remains to be seen.
Great Britain, who were second in Rio with 27 gold medals are only expected to win less than half of that in Tokyo. The reduction in medals for Britain is due to lower expectations in cycling – track, gymnastics – artistic and rowing.
Gracenote’s data crunch also predicts that the Netherlands, who won a total of 19 medals in Rio could win 41 medals of all colour in Tokyo.
Other NOCs expected to improve markedly on 2016 results are Australia, Russia, India and Turkey. Hong Kong is projected to go from zero medals in 2016 five at Tokyo 2020.